Assess the possibility of debt crisis based on public debt sustainability in Vietnam

Abstract

 In the difficult context, governments of many countries use policies to support the economy to overcome the consequences of Covid-19, These leads to reduce revenues and rise public expenditure, causing to high public debt. Under these circumstances, countries do not have many options such as debt restructuring, debt rescheduling, the risk of default and the debt crisis is inevitable. Vietnam has managed to control the public debt but there are still many risks: the pressure to repay foreign debt, the less favorable and commercial loans, interest rate and exchange rate risks... The study examines the possibility of public debt crisis in Vietnam based on public debt sustainability under Binary Recurrsive Tree methodology. Therefore, the Government has controlled macro economy, effectively loans and improved fiscal discipline as well as coordinated policies to avoid public debt crisis.