Vốn đầu tư gián tiếp nước ngoài vào Việt Nam

Abstract

The paper analyzes the pattern of foreign indirect investment into Vietnam, including its determinants and interaction with other macroeconomic variables. With a monthly data sample from February 2018 to September 2024, the Time-Varying Coefficient Bayesian Vector Autoregression (TVC-BSVAR) records that the depreciation in local currency (VND) leads to a decline in foreign indirect investment (FII), while the US Federal Reserve’s target interest rate and the gap between domestic and world economic growth rates are unclear. Conversely, FII inflows help strengthen the VND and support domestic economic growth of the VND and supports domestic economic growth. Among the macroeconomic variables, the VND/USD exchange rate plays the most influential role in explaining the variation of FII for recent years. These results also hold for the subcategory of FII that contributes to increasing the charter capital of enterprises (FIIK), with one notable exception as the US Federal Reserve’s target interest rate exerts a stronger and more negative impact on FIIK.