The impact of climate change and extreme weather events on agricultural crop output productivity in Vietnam

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on Vietnam’s agricultural crop output productivity from 2003 to 2022 using panel data from Vietnam’s North, Central, and South regions. We analyzed how rainfall, humidity, temperature, floods, salinity intrusion, and storms affect the crop output productivity. Some statistical models have been proposed, such as fixed effects, random effects, and pooled least squares models, and the fixed effect model with heteroscedastic and autocorrelation consistent standard errors was chosen as the most suitable. Of the climate-related variables, rain was found to be the strongest and most significant predictor of crop output productivity, and was also found to be significantly impacted by other weather events such as floods, torna does, and saltwater intrusion. This study highlights the vulnerability of the sector to climate change, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation
strategies. These include enhancing early warning systems, improving water management, promoting resilient crop varieties, and diversifying agricultural practices. Future research should explore the economic impacts on farming households and assess the effectiveness of adaptation strategies amid evolving climate pressures.