APPLYING CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR DIARRHEAL DISEASE WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST REGION OF VIET NAM

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most serious threats to global human health in the 21^stcentury. Therefore, using climate information in epidemic forecasting and early warning systems and reducing vulnerability to climate change is very important but so far this was not well studied. The main objective of this study is to apply and further develop a model using climate information for epidemic warning, especially for diarrheal disease, in the Northwest region of Viet Nam. The ARIMAX dynamic model has been applied using monthly climate and morbidity data sets of period 2004-2014 with 2014 data used for model calibration. The results have showed that ARIMAX dynamic model can simulate diarrheal disease cases very closely to the observation data, therefore can provide a good basis for diarrheal disease warning system.