Land use change prediction in Cu Chi district, Ho Chi Minh City using an integrated Markov chain and GIS approach
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Abstract
This study applied the Markov chain model integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze land use trends in Cu Chi district, Ho Chi Minh City, from 2010 to 2020 and to project land use changes for 2025 and 2030. Utilizing land use status maps in 2010, 2015, and 2020, the study developed a land use transition probability matrix to simulate future land use trends. The results indicated that from 2010 to 2030, agricultural land and perennial cropland will decline, while residential land and non-agricultural production land will expand significantly due to urbanization and industrialization. The model's accuracy was validated by comparing the 2020 forecast with actual data, yielding an overall model average of 9.08% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and 428.73 ha for root mean square error (RMSE), demonstrating high reliability. By 2030, residential land is projected to increase (+973.81 ha, +28.52%), whereas perennial cropland will decline sharply (-1,946.22 ha, -12.45%), primarily being converted into urban and industrial zones, posing challenges in balancing urban expansion, economic growth, and land resource conservation. This research provides a scientific basis to support land use planning, thereby assisting policymakers and urban planners in developing sustainable land management strategies for Cu Chi district.
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