THE DYNAMIC INTERRELATION OF VN-INDEX AND MAJOR WORLD STOCK MARKETS: BAYESIAN DCC-GARCH APPROACH

Abstract

This study examined the time-varying interrelation of the Vietnam stock market index (VN-index) and other major stock markets in the world including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Japanese stock market (Nikkei), and European New Exchange Technology (Euronext). Instead of using a constant correlation, we employed the idea of a dynamic correlation in which the relationships between stock markets change overtime. This approach helps to identify the volatility of assets’ interrelation in different stock market cycles. To achieve this, we employed the multivariate time series model, DCC-GARCH model, which fits GARCH model to each of univariate time series and uses their standardized residuals to find the dynamic conditional correlation between each time series. We improved the estimation process of this model by using the Bayesian estimation approach. Our empirical results found that the linkages between VN-index and three major stock markets were always positive and the contagions were consistently transferred stronger during the distress time of global finance.