ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT DISASTER RISKS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN THE MA RIVER BASIN, VIETNAM

Abstract

Drought is a natural hazard that has a strong impact on production and human activities, especially in agriculture. The purpose of the study is to show the extent to which drought will occur in the future. The research simulates drought hazards under current and future conditions using MIKE NAM and MIKE BASIN software. The study results show that climate change will cause important changes in areas at risk of medium and long-term drought, increasing the number of areas at high risk of drought from now to 2030. Two major areas facing water shortage are Muong Lat district and the north of the Ma river basin. The reason indicated is that the amount of rain in the future has a sharp decrease in the dry season.