Investigating the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Vietnam During the Period 1990 - 2024

Abstract

    This study examines the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Vietnam, while identifying macroeconomic factors influencing environmental pollution in the context of implementing the commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The research uses time-series data for the period 1990–2024 from the World Development Indicators and applies econometric models, including Vector Autoregression (VAR), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Threshold Autoregression (TAR), to assess short- and long-run effects and determine the turning point of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The results indicate that GDP growth, FDI inflows, industrialization, and the exchange rate all contribute to an increase in per capita CO₂ emissions in both the short and long run. The long-run coefficient of GDP reaches 0.72, confirming a strong link between growth and carbon emissions, while the error correction term (-0.184) indicates the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Forecasts suggest that by 2050, per capita CO₂ emissions may increase fivefold without intervention measures. The TAR model identifies an income threshold at which emissions begin to decline, estimated at USD 34,500 (2015 prices), which is significantly higher than Vietnam’s current level. The study provides important empirical evidence to support policymaking towards sustainable development and achieving the Net Zero target.